Speaker
Description
Global climate change has become the primary driver behind the emergence of new biological hazards. In Bulgaria, the convergence of rising mean temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and the rapidly warming of the Black Sea basin is creating an ideal environment for non-native and dormant pathogens. As climate change alters the microbial landscape, there is a growing risk of outbreaks of diseases that the Ministry of Health and the Bulgarian Food Safety Agency are traditionally unequipped to diagnose or contain. Bulgaria's current biosecurity framework and its capacity to monitor, detect, and respond to climate-induced biological risks are currently insufficient. The present study aims to identify potential directly transmitted and vector-borne pathogens that could emerge in Bulgaria due to environmental changes and pose a significant biorisk. Based on the new conceptual framework of viewing public health as a part of the national security, this research evaluates the potential impact of epidemic outbreaks on the health infrastructure. Utilizing various models within a multi-criteria risk analysis framework, the study evaluates the pressure that such potential epidemics would exert on both the healthcare system and national security.