International Conference on Secure Systems Design and Technology Development (SysTechDev 2026)

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for Determining Evacuation Parameters from Settlements

Not scheduled

20m

''Vasil Levski'' National Military University

Paper – Oral Presentation Defense and Security Technology

Speaker

Prof. Iliyan Lilov (Vasil Levski National Military Universiti)

Description

This paper examines a possible application of the Monte Carlo Method for the approximate estimation of the number of people subject to evacuation during disaster situations related to flooding in populated areas. The crisis scenarios are simulated using software that reproduces river overflows resulting from controlled dam releases or dam wall failures, as well as from prolonged and intense rainfall events. The proposed method may also be applied to other types of crisis situations. The results can support the planning process in crisis management and assist in forecasting the resources required for an adequate response.